The only company that makes AI's most important machine just raised its sales forecast again

Key points

• ASML raised its full-year 2025 revenue forecast to between 43 billion euros and 45 billion euros, up from a previous range of 36 billion to 40 billion euros.
• The company reported Q2 net sales of 9.3 billion euros, beating analyst expectations of 8.8 billion euros.
• ASML shares have risen 115% so far this year, before pulling back slightly after an early 7% jump on Wednesday.
• ASML is the only company on Earth that makes EUV lithography machines, the specialist equipment used to print the world's most advanced chips.
• One analyst at Morningstar says the stock looks "slightly overvalued" and trades at roughly 50 times forward earnings.

ASML, a Dutch company based in Veldhoven in the Netherlands, makes machines that are unlike anything else on the planet. Its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, enormous precision instruments that use bursts of ultraviolet light to print microscopic circuit patterns onto silicon, are the only way to produce the most advanced chips available today. No AI chip gets made without one.

On Wednesday the company announced it is raising its full-year sales forecast for the second time in 2025. It now expects revenue of 43 billion euros to 45 billion euros (roughly 49 billion to 51 billion US dollars). A few months ago, it was predicting 36 billion to 40 billion euros.

That is a big shift, and the reason is straightforward: chipmakers are spending furiously to keep up with demand for AI hardware.

What does this mean for ordinary people?

It means the AI buildout is still accelerating, and the companies supplying the picks and shovels are doing very well. ASML's customers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world's largest contract chip manufacturer, are expanding at pace. TSMC reported a 68% jump in June sales and is adding two new advanced chip packaging plants in southern Taiwan. Those plants need ASML machines.

For anyone who shops, banks, or uses a phone, faster chip production generally means better and cheaper AI features over time. The bottleneck right now is supply, not ideas.

ASML's second-quarter net profit came in at 2.9 billion euros, beating analyst expectations of 2.6 billion euros, as first reported by CNBC Tech. Shares jumped more than 7% at the open before settling around 4.4% higher on the day.

Not everyone is entirely relaxed. The stock now trades at roughly 50 times its expected forward earnings, a level one Morningstar analyst compared to the frothy valuations seen during the Covid boom. That analyst, Javier Correonero, called the shares "slightly overvalued" and said a fairer multiple would be 35 to 40 times earnings.

There is also a geopolitical wrinkle. A bipartisan group of US lawmakers proposed a bill in April that would ban ASML from selling even its older deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines, a lower-specification but still widely used type, to Chinese chip companies. ASML's stock fell 6% that month. The bill has not yet passed.

ASML said Wednesday it still expects China to account for around 20% of annual net sales. Correonero noted that past export restrictions have sometimes pushed Chinese buyers to order more machines faster, fearing tighter rules ahead.

Here is the honest takeaway: if you hold broad index funds, you already have some exposure to this story. ASML's continued strength is a signal that big AI spending is real and ongoing. But a stock up 115% in a year, trading at Covid-era valuations, deserves respect alongside excitement.